Brisbane Market Insights - May 2021

Posted By David Brown

Brisbane’s typically slow-moving property market has continued to rise as part of a once-in-a-decade boom that experts say could fuel a further 10 per cent rise in house prices in the coming year.

Brisbane house prices have soared to record heights for the seventh consecutive quarter, with tight stock levels and strong demand across all demographics increasing competition. Property Investors have also made their way back into the market and competition is heating up.

The latest Corelogic home value index shows Brisbane dwelling prices have risen by 1.7 per cent on a rolling four-week basis.

Brisbane house prices advanced a further 1.8 per cent during April, pushing it up 6.2 per cent for the recent quarter and 9.6 per cent for the year to date.

The current median value for dwellings is $558,295 which is $10,000 higher than just a month ago.
The median house price of $621,806 continues to attract interstate migrants from the larger markets of Sydney, where the median is now $1.14 million, and Melbourne at $869,676.
The current median unit price in Brisbane is $405,902, which is $5,000 more than one month ago.

The resurgence of buyer interest in the Brisbane property market has meant that auction clearance rates have consistently been in the 70 per cent range.

Clearance rates across April notably higher for houses compared to apartments, reflecting broader trends. Hot spots included Brisbane’s inner city, inner east, inner west and the inner north – where house prices skyrocketed by 13 per cent over the past year to $1.2 million, 13.2 per cent to $1.053 million, 10.4 per cent to $1.17 million and 13.1 per cent to $1.1 million.

Brisbane is experiencing one of the tightest rental markets in a decade on the back of high demand coupled with extremely low supply.

Across April, Brisbane’s rental markets are experiencing a tightening of supply, with vacancy rates currently sitting at 1.8 per cent.
Rental returns and yields have significantly increased in Brisbane, with rents soaring from 5 per cent to 15 per cent.
Gross rental yields sit at 4 per cent for houses and 5.2 per cent for units—much higher than other capital cities such as Sydney and Melbourne.

Some of the tightest vacancies across the capital’s suburbs include Anstead (0.5 per cent), Birkdale (0.3 per cent), Capalaba (0.2 per cent), Ferny Hill (0.3 per cent), Gumdale (0.4 per cent), Manly West (0.5 per cent), Rothwell (0.2 per cent), Sandgate (0.5 per cent), Shailer Park (0.4 per cent), Thornside (0.3 per cent) and Wakerley (0.4 per cent).

Brisbane's housing market has remained particularly unaltered by the closure of international borders, where historically high demand from overseas migrants has been disrupted. Tight stock levels and strong demand across all demographics have made it incredibly difficult not only to find a property to buy but to also secure something at a reasonable price.

Loan data shows investors have started coming back into a housing market they had largely vacated and the boom is being driven overwhelmingly by established owner-occupiers.

Another big part of the demographic buyer base helping drive demand in Brisbane has been first home buyers.

Brisbane’s proportion of home loans that remained on deferral at the end of March was just 0.7 per cent, indicating a very very low likelihood of distressed selling. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland in March was 4547, 12.1 per cent up on February’s figures.

Brisbane housing market forecasts

ANZ economists forecast Brisbane house prices will rise by 9.5 per cent next year, as low-interest rates and government stimulus flow through the economy while Commonwealth Bank updated its forecasts, projecting a strong rebound in prices across the second half of 2021.

CBA now expects Brisbane house prices to increase by 16.6 per cent to December 2022 compared to 13.7 per cent in Sydney and 12.4 per cent in Melbourne.

Westpac has also updated its property forecasts, with Brisbane real estate prices tipped to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.